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Torpedo Vladimir vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Smolensk
Smolensk
4/12/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Malaya Sportivmaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir51%
×Draw25%
Smolensk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Vladimir
1.60
Smolensk
1.02

Torpedo Vladimir creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.28
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.31
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw
76%
Torpedo Vladimir or Smolensk
75%
Draw or Smolensk
49%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
27%
Smolensk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
80%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
47%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
22%
Smolensk 1+ goals
64%
Smolensk 2+ goals
27%
Smolensk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
68%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more
51%
level
25%
Smolensk scores more
24%

Torpedo Vladimir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Torpedo Vladimir 0–1 Smolensk

Smolensk beat Torpedo Vladimir 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 12, 2021.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivmaya Arena in Vladimir.