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Smolensk vs Torpedo Vladimir — Second League - Group 2 2020

Smolensk
Smolensk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
10/9/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk37%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Vladimir35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smolensk
1.16
Torpedo Vladimir
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

creates per match

Smolensk
0.88
Torpedo Vladimir
1.08

allows per match

Smolensk
1.18
Torpedo Vladimir
1.44

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par
Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw
65%
Smolensk or Torpedo Vladimir
72%
Draw or Torpedo Vladimir
63%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals
69%
Smolensk 2+ goals
32%
Smolensk 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
31%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)
51%
Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Smolensk scores more
37%
level
28%
Torpedo Vladimir scores more
35%

Smolensk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Smolensk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Smolensk 1–4 Torpedo Vladimir

Torpedo Vladimir beat Smolensk 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.