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Torpedo Vladimir vs Chita — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
CANC
15:00
Chita
Chita
10/29/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir56%
×Draw23%
Chita21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Vladimir
1.81
Chita
1.00

Torpedo Vladimir creates 81% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.28
Chita
0.70

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.31
Chita
2.33

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par
Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Chita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw
79%
Torpedo Vladimir or Chita
77%
Draw or Chita
44%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
32%
Chita wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
84%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
54%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
27%
Chita 1+ goals
63%
Chita 2+ goals
26%
Chita 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
73%
Chita (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chita attack 0.70 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more
56%
level
23%
Chita scores more
21%

Torpedo Vladimir at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Vladimir face Chita (Second League - Group 2)

Second League - Group 2 returns with Torpedo Vladimir hosting Chita. Match starts October 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Vladimir host Chita at Stadion Torpedo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.