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Chita vs Torpedo Vladimir — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
6/4/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita40%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Vladimir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.33
Torpedo Vladimir
1.20

Chita creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 87 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Torpedo Vladimir
1.08

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Torpedo Vladimir
1.44

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chita or draw
66%
Chita or Torpedo Vladimir
73%
Draw or Torpedo Vladimir
60%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
18%
Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
74%
Chita 2+ goals
38%
Chita 3+ goals
15%
Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
54%
Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chita scores more
40%
level
27%
Torpedo Vladimir scores more
34%

Chita at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chita 2–1 Torpedo Vladimir

Chita beat Torpedo Vladimir 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 4, 2021.