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Torpedo Moskva vs Veles — First League 2024

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Preview
15:00
Veles
Veles
9/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Arena Khimki
Big match
51%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
51%25%24%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Torpedo Moskva51%
×Draw25%
Veles24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.61
Veles
1.02

Torpedo Moskva creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.47
Veles
1.17

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.87
Veles
1.75

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
76%
Torpedo Moskva or Veles
75%
Draw or Veles
49%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
27%
Veles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
80%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
48%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
22%
Veles 1+ goals
64%
Veles 2+ goals
27%
Veles 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
68%
Veles (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Veles away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.47 + Veles defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Veles attack 1.17 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
51%
level
25%
Veles scores more
24%

Torpedo Moskva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • 71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Torpedo Moskva have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moskva
WWWW
Veles
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Moskva face Veles (First League)

First League returns with Torpedo Moskva hosting Veles. Match starts September 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Moskva host Veles at Arena Khimki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.