Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma

Torpedo Moskva

Preview

15:00

Spartak Kostroma

8/22/2026

First League · Round 8Arena Khimki

42%

Torpedo Moskva

model favours

42%26%32%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo Moskva42%

×Draw26%

Spartak Kostroma32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Torpedo Moskva

1.44

Spartak Kostroma

1.23

Torpedo Moskva creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.53

0.93

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.48

Spartak Kostroma

1.53

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.93

Spartak Kostroma

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

68%

Torpedo Moskva or Spartak Kostroma

74%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

58%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

20%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

18%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

35%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

57%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.48 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

42%

level

26%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

32%

Torpedo Moskva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Moskva

WWWW

Kostroma

WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff