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Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
8/11/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo Moskva44%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.48
Spartak Kostroma
1.19

Torpedo Moskva creates 24% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
70%
Torpedo Moskva or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
56%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
77%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
43%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
59%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
44%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
30%

Torpedo Moskva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on August 11, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.