Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Kostroma vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
11/30/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma37%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Torpedo Moskva
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 104 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
66%
Spartak Kostroma or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
63%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
52%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
37%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
34%

Spartak Kostroma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Spartak Kostroma 0–1 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Spartak Kostroma 1-0 in First League on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Karavaevo.