Torpedo Moskva 2–2 Mordovia Saransk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Mordovia Saransk

I. Sergeev 25', 20'

V. Adaev 81'

D. Buranov 33'

7/24/2019

First League · Round 4Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Torpedo Moskva53%

×Draw25%

Mordovia Saransk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchMordovia Saransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.93

Torpedo Moskva

1.58

Mordovia Saransk

0.93

Torpedo Moskva creates 70% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 36 away

1.55

creates per match

1.00

0.85

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Mordovia Saransk

1.00

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Mordovia Saransk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Mordovia Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

78%

Torpedo Moskva or Mordovia Saransk

75%

Draw or Mordovia Saransk

47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

28%

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

79%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

47%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

21%

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

61%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

24%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

70%

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

53%

level

25%

Mordovia Saransk scores more

22%

Torpedo Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

14'

20'

25'

33'

41'

48'

54'

56'

64'

A. Shustov← A. Dzhumaev

67'

E. Tatarinov← A. Galoyan

67'

A. Orlov← V. Sergeev

72'

I. Lebedenko← K. Kertanov

75'

A. Lyakh

81'

V. Adaev

87'

R. Navletov← F. Dvoretskov

90+1'

A. Samsonov← R. Magal

Torpedo

Mordovia

31

14

24

90

45

88

⚽

Buranov

96

⚽

Adaev

17

▼

Dvoretsko

7

▼

Dzhumaev

11

Bazelyuk

15

▼

22

17

16

47

28

▼

Magal

77

Samoshnik

7

Ryazantse

11

▼

Kertanov

27

▼

Kalugin

20

▼

Galoyan

33

⚽2

Sergeev

Manager: N. Savichev

54'▲A. Lyakh←▼O. Kalugin

67'▲E. Tatarinov←▼A. Galoyan

72'▲I. Lebedenko←▼K. Kertanov

90+1'▲A. Samsonov←▼R. Magal

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

24Lyakh35Tatarinov10Lebedenko44Samsonov4Eliseev6Shustikov9Selyukov15Orekhov85Tsitsilin90Kenyaykin

Manager: M. Mustafin

64'▲A. Shustov←▼A. Dzhumaev

67'▲A. Orlov←▼V. Sergeev

87'▲R. Navletov←▼F. Dvoretskov

Mordovia Saransk substitutes

4Shustov10Orlov2Navletov1Shebanov3Strelov13Sobolev18Ermakov

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Mordovia Saransk

Torpedo Moskva and Mordovia Saransk drew 2-2 in First League on July 24, 2019.

Goals: I. Sergeev (20', 25'), D. Buranov (33'), V. Adaev (81').

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.

Torpedo Moskva vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Mordovia Saransk