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Mordovia Saransk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
11/9/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk28%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
0.93
Torpedo Moskva
1.23

Torpedo Moskva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.24
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
57%
Mordovia Saransk or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
72%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
10%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
61%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
24%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
7%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
39%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
28%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
43%

Torpedo Moskva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs Torpedo Moskva

Mordovia Saransk and Torpedo Moskva drew 1-1 in First League on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Start in Saransk.