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Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
8/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Moskva35%
×Draw25%
Khimki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.38
Khimki
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.60
Khimki
0.93

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.00
Khimki
2.15

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
61%
Torpedo Moskva or Khimki
75%
Draw or Khimki
65%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
16%
Khimki wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
16%
Khimki 1+ goals
77%
Khimki 2+ goals
43%
Khimki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
47%
Khimki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 0.60 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Khimki attack 0.93 + Torpedo Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
35%
level
25%
Khimki scores more
39%

Khimki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki

Khimki beat Torpedo Moskva 3-1 in Premier League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.