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Khimki vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
7/24/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki43%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.39
Torpedo Moskva
1.11

Khimki creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 104 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
70%
Khimki or Torpedo Moskva
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
57%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
20%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
75%
Khimki 2+ goals
40%
Khimki 3+ goals
16%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
59%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.39

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimki scores more
43%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
30%

Khimki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki vs Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Khimki 2-1 in First League on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.