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Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
9/8/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torpedo Moskva42%
×Draw27%
Khimki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.36
Khimki
1.12

Torpedo Moskva creates 21% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 51 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
69%
Torpedo Moskva or Khimki
73%
Draw or Khimki
58%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
20%
Khimki wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
39%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
16%
Khimki 1+ goals
67%
Khimki 2+ goals
31%
Khimki 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
58%
Khimki (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Khimki attack 1.39 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
42%
level
27%
Khimki scores more
31%

Torpedo Moskva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Khimki

Torpedo Moskva beat Khimki 1-0 in First League on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.