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Torpedo Moskva vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
7/15/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Torpedo Moskva46%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Makhachkala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.19
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.77

Torpedo Moskva creates 55% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 34 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
76%
Torpedo Moskva or Dinamo Makhachkala
70%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
54%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
46%
level
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
24%

Torpedo Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Torpedo Moskva beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 in First League on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.