Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
R. Chervyakov 79'
I. Stefanovich 75'
11/27/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala41%
×Draw31%
Torpedo Moskva28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.10
Torpedo Moskva
0.86

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.15
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
72%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Torpedo Moskva
69%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
17%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
10%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
58%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
21%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
59%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
41%
level
31%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
28%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
T. Sundukov← I. Shumakhov
59'
V. Gromyko← A. Orekhov
67'
I. Stefanovich← G. Gongadze
67'
R. Chervyakov← I. Gorbunov
75'
I. Stefanovich
79'
Z. Yusupov← R. Magomedov
79'
M. Kostyukov← S. Serderov
79'
A. Sandrachuk← M. Khramtsov
79'
R. Chervyakov
87'
Valeri Gromyko
90+2'
N. Kalugin← I. Manelov
90+2'
R. Yuzepchuk← I. Lebedenko

Statistics

DinamoTorpedo
Overview
2Corners2
Discipline
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Dinamo Makhachkala 0–2 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 in First League on November 27, 2023.

Goals: I. Stefanovich (75'), R. Chervyakov (79').

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Kaspiysk.