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Torpedo Moskva vs Baltika — Cup 2019

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baltika
Baltikaadvanced
C. Offor 71'
A. Mendel 19'
11/25/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torpedo Moskva33%
×Draw27%
Baltika40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.20
Baltika
1.36

Baltika creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.10
Baltika
1.43

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.30
Baltika
1.29

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
60%
Torpedo Moskva or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
67%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
14%
Baltika wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
74%
Baltika 2+ goals
39%
Baltika 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
45%
Baltika (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.10 + Baltika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Baltika attack 1.43 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
33%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
40%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Mendel↳ Y. Kovalev
25'
Ruslan Baytukov
46'
A. Filin← K. Andrade
54'
V. Shitov← A. Galoyan
60'
A. Mourid← A. Mendel
60'
S. Pryakhin← T. Yenne
60'
M. Beveev← E. Civic
71'
C. Offor
72'
G. Shevchenko← R. Baytukov
72'
B. Roganovic← D. Stepanov
78'
V. Churilov← A. Ivankov
78'
A. Chupayov← A. Yushin
80'
K. Stepanov← K. Obonin

Statistics

TorpedoBaltika
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Baltika

Baltika beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in Cup on November 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Mendel (19'), C. Offor (71').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.