Torpedo Moskva 2–2 Baltika: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

I. Lebedenko 74'

M. Sultonov 36'

A. Maksimenko 71'

A. Meshchaninov 64'

3/12/2022

First League · Round 27Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Torpedo Moskva40%

×Draw28%

Baltika32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Torpedo Moskva

1.27

Baltika

1.09

Torpedo Moskva creates 17% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.34

0.85

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Baltika

1.34

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

68%

Torpedo Moskva or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

60%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

18%

Baltika wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

14%

Baltika 1+ goals

66%

Baltika 2+ goals

30%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

56%

Baltika (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baltika attack 1.34 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

40%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

32%

Torpedo Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

53'

59'

64'

66'

D. Klenkin← M. Kuzmin

71'

I. Lebedenko← R. Netfullin

71'

P. Sedko← V. Adaev

71'

D. Laptev← A. Kalmykov

71'

A. Maksimenko

74'

I. Lebedenko

77'

T. Musaev← V. Lazarev

77'

M. Tishkin← M. Barsov

80'

Aleksei Pomerko

80'

Aleksei Pomerko

87'

S. Karpovich← A. Popov

87'

I. Geloyan← M. Kašćelan

89'

E. Proshkin← I. Enin

Torpedo4-3-3

Baltika3-4-2-1

55

⚽

Maksimenk

11

▼

Barsov

89

▼

Lazarev

5

Osipov

6

▼

Kuzmin

8

▼

Popov

10

Alshin

18

▼

Kašćelan

26

⚽

21

1

51

4

44

5

11

35

▼

Enin

52

▼

Netfullin

20

Pomerko

90

▼

Kalmykov

9

▼

Adaev

14

⚽

Sultonov

Manager: A. Borodyuk

71'▲I. Lebedenko←▼R. Netfullin

71'▲P. Sedko←▼V. Adaev

71'▲D. Laptev←▼A. Kalmykov

89'▲E. Proshkin←▼I. Enin

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

10Lebedenko17Sedko55Laptev49Proshkin15Orekhov24Dorokhov56Dovbnya59Abdrashitov97Poluboyarinov

Manager: S. Ignashevich

66'▲D. Klenkin←▼M. Kuzmin

77'▲T. Musaev←▼V. Lazarev

77'▲M. Tishkin←▼M. Barsov

87'▲S. Karpovich←▼A. Popov

87'▲I. Geloyan←▼M. Kašćelan

Baltika substitutes

4Klenkin22Musaev44Tishkin33Karpovich70Geloyan16Aleynik17Maklakov92Shamkin75Prisyazhnenko