Torpedo Moskva 1–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

I. Berkovskiy 9'

M. Shorkin 63' (OG)

8/22/2020

First League · Round 5Saturn Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Torpedo Moskva41%

×Draw28%

Baltika31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

Torpedo Moskva

1.29

Baltika

1.09

Torpedo Moskva creates 18% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 111 away

1.56

creates per match

1.32

0.86

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Baltika

1.32

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

Baltika

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

69%

Torpedo Moskva or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

59%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

18%

Baltika wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

37%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

14%

Baltika 1+ goals

66%

Baltika 2+ goals

30%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

57%

Baltika (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 105 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Baltika defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Baltika attack 1.32 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

41%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

31%

Torpedo Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

I. Berkovskiy

11'

Yan Kazaev

51'

Vladislav Adaev

58'

S. Shustikov← V. Adaev

63'

M. ShorkinOwn goal

69'

A. Eliseev← R. Magal

69'

I. Lebedenko← D. Proshlyakov

71'

A. Dudiev← M. Kuzmin

72'

Sergey Shustikov

75'

A. Gordyushenko← A. Evdokimov

75'

M. Markin← Allef

75'

A. Chochiev← Y. Kazaev

83'

K. Kertanov← A. Kalmykov

84'

Igor Lebedenko

88'

Ilnur Alshin

90'

Maksim Tishkin

90+4'

E. Latyshonok← M. Borisko

90+3'

T. Musaev← I. Alshin

Torpedo3-5-2

Baltika4-1-4-1

33

▼

Allef

9

Makarchuk

6

▼

Kuzmin

19

Shavaev

38

▼

Kazaev

10

▼

18

26

2

44

67

▼

Borisko

47

Konyukhov

28

▼

Magal

16

🥅

Shorkin

44

Samsonov

8

⚽

Berkovski

9

▼

Adaev

52

Netfullin

7

Ryazantse

99

▼

Evdokimov

90

▼

Kalmykov

61

▼

Proshlyak

Manager: S. Ignashevich

58'▲S. Shustikov←▼V. Adaev

69'▲A. Eliseev←▼R. Magal

69'▲I. Lebedenko←▼D. Proshlyakov

75'▲A. Gordyushenko←▼A. Evdokimov

83'▲K. Kertanov←▼A. Kalmykov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

6Shustikov4Eliseev10Lebedenko72Gordyushenko11Kertanov15Orekhov17Dvoretskov24Lyakh29Porutchikov51Botnar77Sundukov

Manager: E. Kaleshin

71'▲A. Dudiev←▼M. Kuzmin

75'▲M. Markin←▼Allef

75'▲A. Chochiev←▼Y. Kazaev

90+4'▲E. Latyshonok←▼M. Borisko

90+3'▲T. Musaev←▼I. Alshin

Baltika substitutes

8Dudiev11Markin17Chochiev1Latyshonok60Musaev3Plopa14Demjanov27Maklakov