Torpedo Moskva 3–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avangard Kursk

S. Breev 90+4' (OG)

I. Sergeev 52' (pen), 46'

A. Fedchuk 37'

8/14/2019

First League · Round 8Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Torpedo Moskva49%

×Draw27%

Avangard Kursk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.92

Torpedo Moskva

1.45

Avangard Kursk

0.92

Torpedo Moskva creates 58% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 38 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

0.86

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Avangard Kursk

0.97

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

Avangard Kursk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

76%

Torpedo Moskva or Avangard Kursk

73%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

25%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

77%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

18%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

60%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

23%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

67%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

49%

level

27%

Avangard Kursk scores more

24%

Torpedo Moskva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

43'

45'

45'

46'

A. Samsonov← A. Galoyan

46'

I. Sergeev

51'

N. Chagrov

52'

I. SergeevPenalty

57'

I. Lebedenko← K. Kertanov

66'

D. Kayumov← A. Kasaev

67'

A. Fedchuk

67'

A. Eliseev← I. Sergeev

69'

R. Shishkin← A. Ryazantsev

73'

K. Mashukov← A. Batyutin

74'

D. Kayumov

77'

M. Bagaev

89'

R. Minaev

90+4'

S. BreevOwn goal

Torpedo

Avangard

13

4

24

66

3

▼

Kasaev

20

🥅

Breev

23

Kubyshkin

18

▼

Batyutin

14

Kovalev

10

⚽

77

90

17

16

47

28

77

7

▼

Ryazantse

11

▼

Kertanov

27

Kalugin

20

▼

Galoyan

33

⚽2

▼

Sergeev

Manager: N. Savichev

46'▲A. Samsonov←▼A. Galoyan

57'▲I. Lebedenko←▼K. Kertanov

67'▲A. Eliseev←▼I. Sergeev

69'▲R. Shishkin←▼A. Ryazantsev

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

44Samsonov10Lebedenko4Eliseev49Shishkin6Shustikov22Tsygan85Tsitsilin9Selyukov24Lyakh35Tatarinov

Manager: M. Iskakov

66'▲D. Kayumov←▼A. Kasaev

73'▲K. Mashukov←▼A. Batyutin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

6Kayumov7Mashukov1Sautin8Zemskov9Grigorjev22Voynov40Timoshin46Sukharev97Nikitin

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Avangard Kursk

Torpedo Moskva beat Avangard Kursk 3-1 in First League on August 14, 2019.

Goals: A. Fedchuk (37'), I. Sergeev (46', 52' pen), S. Breev (90+4' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.

Torpedo Moskva vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Avangard Kursk