Avangard Kursk 2–2 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Torpedo Moskva

K. Mashukov 63'

K. Kovalev 62'

I. Sergeev 25'

A. Rudenko 2'

3/9/2020

First League · Round 26Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Avangard Kursk37%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Avangard Kursk

1.24

Torpedo Moskva

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 101 away

1.43

creates per match

1.21

1.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.43

Torpedo Moskva

1.21

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.24

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

64%

Avangard Kursk or Torpedo Moskva

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

63%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

71%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

35%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

13%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

71%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

35%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

50%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.43 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.21 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

37%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

36%

Avangard Kursk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

8'

25'

31'

38'

49'

54'

M. Tarasov← D. Sinyaev

60'

A. Ageev← I. Podolyak

62'

A. Lyakh← A. Gordyushenko

62'

K. Kovalev

63'

K. Mashukov

65'

A. Galoyan← A. Rudenko

69'

A. Samsonov← V. Adaev

74'

S. Breev← G. Chirkin

80'

I. Lebedenko← I. Sergeev

86'

D. Kayumov← O. Kalugin

89'

K. Kertanov← A. Galoyan

90+5'

R. Magal

90+5'

M. Zemskov

Avangard

Torpedo

51

2

16

47

28

7

52

72

▼

Gordyushe

9

▼

Adaev

33

⚽

▼

Sergeev

79

⚽

▼

95

40

22

86

▼

Chirkin

17

▼

Sinyaev

23

▼

Podolyak

8

Zemskov

27

▼

Kalugin

7

⚽

Mashukov

71

Tiknizyan

14

⚽

Kovalev

Manager: I. Belyaev

54'▲M. Tarasov←▼D. Sinyaev

60'▲A. Ageev←▼I. Podolyak

74'▲S. Breev←▼G. Chirkin

86'▲D. Kayumov←▼O. Kalugin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

10Tarasov76Ageev20Breev6Kayumov1Bogatyrev4Belyaev24Bobryshov

Manager: N. Savichev

62'▲A. Lyakh←▼A. Gordyushenko

65'▲A. Galoyan←▼A. Rudenko

69'▲A. Samsonov←▼V. Adaev

80'▲I. Lebedenko←▼I. Sergeev

89'▲K. Kertanov←▼A. Galoyan

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

24Lyakh20Galoyan44Samsonov10Lebedenko11Kertanov4Eliseev6Shustikov15Orekhov17Dvoretskov74Filippov90Kenyaykin

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Torpedo Moskva

Avangard Kursk and Torpedo Moskva drew 2-2 in First League on March 9, 2020.

Goals: A. Rudenko (2'), I. Sergeev (25'), K. Kovalev (62'), K. Mashukov (63').

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.

Avangard Kursk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Torpedo Moskva