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Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
9/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Torpedo Moskva47%
×Draw28%
Arsenal Tula25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Arsenal Tula
0.90

Torpedo Moskva creates 50% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 68 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
75%
Torpedo Moskva or Arsenal Tula
72%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
53%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
22%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
39%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
15%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
59%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
23%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
65%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
47%
level
28%
Arsenal Tula scores more
25%

Torpedo Moskva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Moskva 2–2 Arsenal Tula

Torpedo Moskva and Arsenal Tula drew 2-2 in First League on September 9, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.