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Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
M. Ćurić 87'
3/30/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula36%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.11
Torpedo Moskva
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 104 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
65%
Arsenal Tula or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
64%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
14%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
67%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
30%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
10%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
50%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
36%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
35%

Arsenal Tula at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
G. Alykulov← A. Yushin
40'
A. Chupaev← R. Chervyakov
42'
Ravil Netfullin
46'
E. Reyes← S. Tkachev
46'
K. Khosonov← R. Netfullin
52'
Danil Lipovoy
54'
Kirill Bolshakov
65'
A. Kalmykov← U. Đuranović
65'
A. Khabibov← D. Lipovoy
65'
D. Semenchuk← E. Botaka-Yoboma
73'
I. Gorbunov← Y. Guzmán
82'
Irakliy Manelov
87'
V. Galkin← I. Manelov
87'
M. Ćurić
88'
Mario Ćurić
90+1'
Amur Kalmykov

Statistics

ArsenalTorpedo
Discipline
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Arsenal Tula 1-0 in First League on March 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Ćurić (87').

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.