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Torpedo Moskva vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
10/24/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Saturn Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Torpedo Moskva39%
×Draw28%
Alaniya II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.23
Alaniya II
1.11

Torpedo Moskva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 21 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
67%
Torpedo Moskva or Alaniya II
72%
Draw or Alaniya II
61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
17%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
67%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
30%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
54%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
39%
level
28%
Alaniya II scores more
33%

Torpedo Moskva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Alaniya II

Torpedo Moskva beat Alaniya II 2-0 in First League on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Saturn Stadion in Ramenskoje.