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Alaniya II vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 37Republican Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II49%
×Draw25%
Torpedo Moskva26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.60
Torpedo Moskva
1.11

Alaniya II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 104 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
74%
Alaniya II or Torpedo Moskva
75%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
51%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
25%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
80%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
47%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
22%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
65%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alaniya II scores more
49%
level
25%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
26%

Alaniya II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya II vs Torpedo Moskva

Alaniya II and Torpedo Moskva drew 1-1 in First League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Republican Spartak Stadium in Vladikavkaz.