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Torpedo Moskva U19 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Torpedo Moskva U19
Torpedo Moskva U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
4/21/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 6Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Moskva U1946%
×Draw24%
Khimki U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.71
Khimki U20
1.36

Torpedo Moskva U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.21
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.36
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva U19 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva U19 or draw
69%
Torpedo Moskva U19 or Khimki U20
76%
Draw or Khimki U20
54%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
24%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals
82%
Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals
51%
Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals
24%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
74%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
39%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 1.21 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more
46%
level
24%
Khimki U20 scores more
31%

Torpedo Moskva U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva U19 vs Khimki U20

Torpedo Moskva U19 beat Khimki U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.