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Khimki U20 vs Torpedo Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Khimki U20
Khimki U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva U19
Torpedo Moskva U19
3/31/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khimki U2049%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Moskva U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki U20
1.72
Torpedo Moskva U19
1.23

Khimki U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Khimki U20
1.57
Torpedo Moskva U19
0.64

allows per match

Khimki U20
1.81
Torpedo Moskva U19
1.86

finishing

Khimki U20+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki U20 ↓

Torpedo Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Khimki U20 or draw
73%
Khimki U20 or Torpedo Moskva U19
76%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva U19
51%

Winning margin

Khimki U20 wins by 2+
26%
Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khimki U20 1+ goals
82%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
51%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
25%
Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Torpedo Moskva U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki U20 attack 1.57 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 0.64 + Khimki U20 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khimki U20 scores more
49%
level
24%
Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more
27%

Khimki U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khimki U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki U20 vs Torpedo Moskva U19

Khimki U20 beat Torpedo Moskva U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.