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Torpedo Moskva U19 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Torpedo Moskva U19
Torpedo Moskva U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
5/19/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 10Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Moskva U1943%
×Draw26%
Fakel U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.48
Fakel U19
1.24

Torpedo Moskva U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.21
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.36
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva U19 or draw
68%
Torpedo Moskva U19 or Fakel U19
74%
Draw or Fakel U19
57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
21%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals
77%
Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals
43%
Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals
19%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
71%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
35%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 1.21 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more
43%
level
26%
Fakel U19 scores more
32%

Torpedo Moskva U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva U19 vs Fakel U19

Fakel U19 beat Torpedo Moskva U19 3-0 in Youth Championship on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.