Fakel U19 0–0 Torpedo Moskva U19: Result & Stats

Fakel U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva U19

4/14/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 5Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fakel U1954%

×Draw24%

Torpedo Moskva U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel U19Expected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

Fakel U19

1.67

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.95

Fakel U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

0.64

1.25

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Fakel U19

1.47

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.64

allows per match

Fakel U19

1.25

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Torpedo Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw

79%

Fakel U19 or Torpedo Moskva U19

76%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva U19

46%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+

29%

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals

81%

Fakel U19 2+ goals

50%

Fakel U19 3+ goals

23%

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals

61%

Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals

25%

Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Torpedo Moskva U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 0.64 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fakel U19 scores more

54%

level

24%

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more

21%

Fakel U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff