Torpedo Moskva II 5–0 Elektron VN: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Elektron VN

6/3/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II62%

×Draw21%

Elektron VN17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchElektron VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.97

Torpedo Moskva II

2.02

Elektron VN

0.97

Torpedo Moskva II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.46

1.48

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.00

Elektron VN

0.46

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.48

Elektron VN

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Elektron VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw

83%

Torpedo Moskva II or Elektron VN

79%

Draw or Elektron VN

38%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

37%

Elektron VN wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

87%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

60%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

33%

Elektron VN 1+ goals

62%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

25%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

78%

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

62%

level

21%

Elektron VN scores more

17%

Torpedo Moskva II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff