Elektron VN 2–3 Torpedo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Elektron VN

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Torpedo Moskva II

4/30/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN25%

×Draw24%

Torpedo Moskva II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elektron VNExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.65

Elektron VN

1.10

Torpedo Moskva II

1.65

Torpedo Moskva II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

0.87

creates per match

1.13

2.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Elektron VN

0.87

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Elektron VN

2.17

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw

50%

Elektron VN or Torpedo Moskva II

76%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

75%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+

10%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals

67%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

30%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

81%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

49%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

34%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Elektron VN scores more

25%

level

24%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

50%

Torpedo Moskva II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff