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Torpedo Moskva II vs Dinamo Vologda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
9/22/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II33%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Vologda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva II
1.16
Dinamo Vologda
1.30

Dinamo Vologda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 60 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.13

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.48
Dinamo Vologda
1.32

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par
Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Dinamo Vologda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw
60%
Torpedo Moskva II or Dinamo Vologda
73%
Draw or Dinamo Vologda
67%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
45%
Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more
33%
level
27%
Dinamo Vologda scores more
40%

Dinamo Vologda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva II vs Dinamo Vologda

Dinamo Vologda beat Torpedo Moskva II 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 22, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.