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Dinamo Vologda vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
7/22/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Vologda47%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Moskva II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vologda
1.48
Torpedo Moskva II
1.06

Dinamo Vologda creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.64
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vologda ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Vologda or draw
73%
Dinamo Vologda or Torpedo Moskva II
74%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
23%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
19%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
63%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vologda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.64 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Vologda scores more
47%
level
26%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
27%

Dinamo Vologda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vologda vs Torpedo Moskva II

Dinamo Vologda beat Torpedo Moskva II 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vologda.