Torpedo Moskva II 3–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Torpedo Moskva II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chertanovo Moscow

8/14/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II31%

×Draw25%

Chertanovo Moscow44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.56

Torpedo Moskva II

1.26

Chertanovo Moscow

1.56

Chertanovo Moscow creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

1.65

1.48

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.00

Chertanovo Moscow

1.65

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.48

Chertanovo Moscow

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw

56%

Torpedo Moskva II or Chertanovo Moscow

75%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

13%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

13%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

46%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

41%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

31%

level

25%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

44%

Chertanovo Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff