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Chertanovo Moscow vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
10/16/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow43%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Moskva II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.44
Torpedo Moskva II
1.18

Chertanovo Moscow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
69%
Chertanovo Moscow or Torpedo Moskva II
74%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
57%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
21%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
42%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
18%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
58%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
43%
level
26%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
31%

Chertanovo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Torpedo Moskva II

Chertanovo Moscow beat Torpedo Moskva II 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.