Torpedo Minsk 0–1 FC Slutsk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Minsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Slutsk

Y. Schikavko 15'

6/16/2018

Premier League · Round 12Stadion FK Minsk (Minsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torpedo Minsk37%

×Draw31%

FC Slutsk32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MinskExpected goals in this matchFC Slutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.95

Torpedo Minsk

1.04

FC Slutsk

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

0.47

creates per match

0.85

1.05

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Torpedo Minsk

0.47

FC Slutsk

0.85

allows per match

Torpedo Minsk

1.05

FC Slutsk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Minsk+0.00on par

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Minsk ↓

FC Slutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Torpedo Minsk or draw

68%

Torpedo Minsk or FC Slutsk

69%

Draw or FC Slutsk

63%

Winning margin

Torpedo Minsk wins by 2+

14%

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torpedo Minsk 1+ goals

65%

Torpedo Minsk 2+ goals

28%

Torpedo Minsk 3+ goals

9%

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

61%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

25%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Minsk (draw refunded)

53%

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Minsk at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Minsk attack 0.47 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.04

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Torpedo Minsk defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torpedo Minsk scores more

37%

level

31%

FC Slutsk scores more

32%

Torpedo Minsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Y. Schikavko

64'

A. Yatskevich← M. Khotov

67'

A. Filanovich← S. Lynko

74'

E. Nikitin← B. Tsygankov

82'

Đ. Šušnjar← E. Morozov

86'

S. Schegrikovich← I. Bobko

90'

T. Musa← S. Doumbia

Torpedo

FC

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Kabelski

67'▲A. Filanovich←▼S. Lynko

74'▲E. Nikitin←▼B. Tsygankov

82'▲Đ. Šušnjar←▼E. Morozov

Torpedo Minsk substitutes

FilanovichNikitinŠušnjarZakharenSanetsStepanovLovets

Manager: V. Pavlov

64'▲A. Yatskevich←▼M. Khotov

86'▲S. Schegrikovich←▼I. Bobko

90'▲T. Musa←▼S. Doumbia

FC Slutsk substitutes

YatskevichSchegrikovichMusaSorokoYasinskiElizarenkoKouadio