FC Slutsk 1–3 Torpedo Minsk: Result & Stats

FC Slutsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Torpedo Minsk

M. Khotov 30'

C. Kouadio 45+3'

A. Vasilyev 26'

S. Lynko 18'

11/4/2018

Premier League · Round 27Stadyen Haradski (Slutsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Slutsk47%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Minsk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SlutskExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.94

FC Slutsk

1.39

Torpedo Minsk

0.94

FC Slutsk creates 48% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 24 away

1.11

creates per match

0.46

1.42

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Slutsk

1.11

Torpedo Minsk

0.46

allows per match

FC Slutsk

1.42

Torpedo Minsk

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Torpedo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Torpedo Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw

75%

FC Slutsk or Torpedo Minsk

73%

Draw or Torpedo Minsk

53%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

23%

Torpedo Minsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

75%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

40%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

16%

Torpedo Minsk 1+ goals

61%

Torpedo Minsk 2+ goals

24%

Torpedo Minsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

65%

Torpedo Minsk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

Torpedo Minsk away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.11 + Torpedo Minsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Torpedo Minsk attack 0.46 + FC Slutsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Slutsk scores more

47%

level

27%

Torpedo Minsk scores more

25%

FC Slutsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

26'

30'

45+3'

68'

N. Patsko← C. Kouadio

75'

S. Rusak← A. Butarevich

76'

P. Zuevich← V. Zukh

84'

E. Nikitin← S. Lynko

87'

I. Yasinski← T. Musa

FC

Torpedo

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Pavlov

76'▲P. Zuevich←▼V. Zukh

87'▲I. Yasinski←▼T. Musa

FC Slutsk substitutes

ZuevichYasinskiBranovetsBylinkin

Manager: Vladimir Nevinski

68'▲N. Patsko←▼C. Kouadio

75'▲S. Rusak←▼A. Butarevich

84'▲E. Nikitin←▼S. Lynko

Torpedo Minsk substitutes

PatskoRusakNikitinTsygankovSchumilovGlinskiyPyatigorets