Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torpedo Minsk vs Dinamo Brest — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brest
D. Laptev 70'
5/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stadyen Traktar (Minsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torpedo Minsk27%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Brest44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Minsk
0.86
Dinamo Brest
1.19

Dinamo Brest creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 115 away

creates per match

Torpedo Minsk
0.47
Dinamo Brest
1.33

allows per match

Torpedo Minsk
1.05
Dinamo Brest
1.25

finishing

Torpedo Minsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Minsk ↓

Dinamo Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Torpedo Minsk or draw
56%
Torpedo Minsk or Dinamo Brest
70%
Draw or Dinamo Brest
73%

Winning margin

Torpedo Minsk wins by 2+
9%
Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torpedo Minsk 1+ goals
58%
Torpedo Minsk 2+ goals
21%
Torpedo Minsk 3+ goals
6%
Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Minsk (draw refunded)
38%
Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Minsk at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Dinamo Brest away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Minsk attack 0.47 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.86

Dinamo Brest attack 1.33 + Torpedo Minsk defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Minsk scores more
27%
level
30%
Dinamo Brest scores more
44%

Dinamo Brest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
S. Lynko
43'
K. Gabi
51'
51'
60'
A. Leonov
68'
J. Fameyeh
70'
D. Laptev
90'
D. Duarte

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Minsk vs Dinamo Brest

Dinamo Brest beat Torpedo Minsk 1-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2019.

Goals: D. Laptev (70').

The match was played at Stadyen Traktar (Minsk).