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Dinamo Brest vs Torpedo Minsk — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brest
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Torpedo Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
J. Fameyeh 25'
O. Khoblenko 15'
10/21/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadyen DASK Brestski (Brest)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Brest58%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Minsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Brest
1.71
Torpedo Minsk
0.82

Dinamo Brest creates 109% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Brest
1.75
Torpedo Minsk
0.46

allows per match

Dinamo Brest
1.18
Torpedo Minsk
1.67

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par
Torpedo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Torpedo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw
82%
Dinamo Brest or Torpedo Minsk
76%
Draw or Torpedo Minsk
42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
33%
Torpedo Minsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
24%
Torpedo Minsk 1+ goals
56%
Torpedo Minsk 2+ goals
20%
Torpedo Minsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
77%
Torpedo Minsk (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

Torpedo Minsk away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.75 + Torpedo Minsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Torpedo Minsk attack 0.46 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more
58%
level
24%
Torpedo Minsk scores more
18%

Dinamo Brest at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
O. Khoblenko
25'
J. Fameyeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Brest 2 – 0 Torpedo Minsk

Dinamo Brest beat Torpedo Minsk 2-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2018.

Goals: O. Khoblenko (15'), J. Fameyeh (25').

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski (Brest).