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Torpedo Miass vs Rodina Moskva II — League #1061 2026

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
6/1/2025League #1061League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 16Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torpedo Miass53%
×Draw30%
Rodina Moskva II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.25
Rodina Moskva II
0.58

Torpedo Miass creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.00
Rodina Moskva II
0.50

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.67
Rodina Moskva II
1.50

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
83%
Torpedo Miass or Rodina Moskva II
70%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
25%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
13%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
44%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
12%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
75%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.00 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rodina Moskva II attack 0.50 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
53%
level
30%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
17%

Torpedo Miass at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Miass vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Torpedo Miass 1-0 in League #1061 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.