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Rodina Moskva II vs Torpedo Miass — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
9/14/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva II46%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Miass25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.27
Torpedo Miass
0.84

Rodina Moskva II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Torpedo Miass
1.00

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Torpedo Miass
0.81

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
75%
Rodina Moskva II or Torpedo Miass
71%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
54%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
21%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
72%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
36%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
14%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
57%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
21%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
65%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.27

Torpedo Miass attack 1.00 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
46%
level
29%
Torpedo Miass scores more
25%

Rodina Moskva II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva II vs Torpedo Miass

Rodina Moskva II and Torpedo Miass drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moscow.