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Torpedo Miass vs Novosibirsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
5/28/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Torpedo Miass31%
×Draw26%
Novosibirsk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.16
Novosibirsk
1.42

Novosibirsk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.37
Novosibirsk
1.43

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
1.40
Novosibirsk
0.95

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
57%
Torpedo Miass or Novosibirsk
74%
Draw or Novosibirsk
69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
12%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
11%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
76%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
41%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
42%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.37 + Novosibirsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Novosibirsk attack 1.43 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
31%
level
26%
Novosibirsk scores more
43%

Novosibirsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Torpedo Miass 1–1 Novosibirsk

Torpedo Miass and Novosibirsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.