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Novosibirsk vs Torpedo Miass — Second League - Group 4 2020

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
8/7/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Novosibirsk41%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Miass32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
1.32
Torpedo Miass
1.14

Novosibirsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.51
Torpedo Miass
1.25

allows per match

Novosibirsk
1.02
Torpedo Miass
1.14

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
68%
Novosibirsk or Torpedo Miass
73%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
59%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
19%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
73%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
38%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
15%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
56%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.51 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Novosibirsk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
41%
level
27%
Torpedo Miass scores more
32%

Novosibirsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novosibirsk vs Torpedo Miass

Torpedo Miass beat Novosibirsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.