Torpedo Miass 1–2 Khimik Vurnary: Result & Stats

Torpedo Miass

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Khimik Vurnary

8/14/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Torpedo Miass38%

×Draw26%

Khimik Vurnary36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MiassExpected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.31

Torpedo Miass

1.37

Khimik Vurnary

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

1.37

creates per match

1.23

1.40

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Torpedo Miass

1.37

Khimik Vurnary

1.23

allows per match

Torpedo Miass

1.40

Khimik Vurnary

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw

64%

Torpedo Miass or Khimik Vurnary

74%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

62%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

18%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

75%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

40%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

16%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

73%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

38%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

52%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.37 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more

38%

level

26%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

36%

Torpedo Miass at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff