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Khimik Vurnary vs Torpedo Miass — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
4/9/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary35%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Miass37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
1.09
Torpedo Miass
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Torpedo Miass
1.25

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.14

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
63%
Khimik Vurnary or Torpedo Miass
71%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
65%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
14%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
66%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
30%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
10%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
31%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
49%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
35%
level
29%
Torpedo Miass scores more
37%

Torpedo Miass at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Vurnary vs Torpedo Miass

Khimik Vurnary beat Torpedo Miass 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.