Torpedo Miass 1–1 Kaluga: Result & Stats

Torpedo Miass

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kaluga

8/9/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 4Trud stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Torpedo Miass40%

×Draw32%

Kaluga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MiassExpected goals in this matchKaluga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.82

Torpedo Miass

1.03

Kaluga

0.82

Torpedo Miass creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.71

0.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Torpedo Miass

1.06

Kaluga

0.71

allows per match

Torpedo Miass

0.94

Kaluga

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Kaluga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw

72%

Torpedo Miass or Kaluga

68%

Draw or Kaluga

60%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

16%

Kaluga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

64%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

28%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

9%

Kaluga 1+ goals

56%

Kaluga 2+ goals

20%

Kaluga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

58%

Kaluga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Kaluga attack 0.71 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more

40%

level

32%

Kaluga scores more

28%

Torpedo Miass at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff