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Kaluga vs Torpedo Miass — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
2/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kaluga61%
×Draw20%
Torpedo Miass19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
2.13
Torpedo Miass
1.10

Kaluga creates 94% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.25
Torpedo Miass
1.33

allows per match

Kaluga
0.88
Torpedo Miass
3.00

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
81%
Kaluga or Torpedo Miass
80%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
39%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
38%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
88%
Kaluga 2+ goals
63%
Kaluga 3+ goals
35%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
76%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.25 + Torpedo Miass defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Torpedo Miass attack 1.33 + Kaluga defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kaluga scores more
61%
level
20%
Torpedo Miass scores more
19%

Kaluga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kaluga 4–1 Torpedo Miass

Kaluga beat Torpedo Miass 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2026.