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Torpedo Miass vs Amkar — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
Preview
15:00
Amkar
Amkar
8/21/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 6Trud stadium
Big match
39%
Torpedo Miass
model favours
39%28%33%

Amkar score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torpedo Miass39%
×Draw28%
Amkar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.25
Amkar
1.11

Torpedo Miass creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.06
Amkar
1.28

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.94
Amkar
1.44

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Amkar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
67%
Torpedo Miass or Amkar
72%
Draw or Amkar
61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
17%
Amkar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
13%
Amkar 1+ goals
67%
Amkar 2+ goals
30%
Amkar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
55%
Amkar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Amkar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Amkar attack 1.28 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
39%
level
28%
Amkar scores more
33%

Torpedo Miass at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Amkar’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Miass
DLLL
Amkar
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Miass face Amkar (Second League A - Fall Season Silver)

Second League A - Fall Season Silver returns with Torpedo Miass hosting Amkar. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Miass host Amkar at Trud stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.