Torpedo Miass 2–1 Amkar: Result & Stats

Torpedo Miass

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Amkar

4/2/2023

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Torpedo Miass31%

×Draw25%

Amkar43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MiassExpected goals in this matchAmkar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.49

Torpedo Miass

1.23

Amkar

1.49

Amkar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.58

1.40

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Torpedo Miass

1.37

Amkar

1.58

allows per match

Torpedo Miass

1.40

Amkar

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Amkar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw

57%

Torpedo Miass or Amkar

75%

Draw or Amkar

69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

13%

Amkar wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

71%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

35%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

13%

Amkar 1+ goals

77%

Amkar 2+ goals

44%

Amkar 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

42%

Amkar (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.37 + Amkar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Amkar attack 1.58 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more

31%

level

25%

Amkar scores more

43%

Amkar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff