Amkar 4–0 Torpedo Miass: Result & Stats

Amkar

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Torpedo Miass

8/21/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Amkar49%

×Draw26%

Torpedo Miass25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmkarExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Miass

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.97

Amkar

1.48

Torpedo Miass

0.97

Amkar creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

1.83

creates per match

1.25

0.68

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Amkar

1.83

Torpedo Miass

1.25

allows per match

Amkar

0.68

Torpedo Miass

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Torpedo Miass →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amkar or draw

75%

Amkar or Torpedo Miass

74%

Draw or Torpedo Miass

51%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+

25%

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals

77%

Amkar 2+ goals

43%

Amkar 3+ goals

19%

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

62%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

25%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)

66%

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amkar scores more

49%

level

26%

Torpedo Miass scores more

25%

Amkar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff