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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
5/28/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 17Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Torpedo Kutaisi58%
×Draw22%
Shukura20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.89
Shukura
1.01

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 87% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 36 away

creates per match

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.58
Shukura
0.86

allows per match

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.17
Shukura
2.19

finishing

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Kutaisi ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Torpedo Kutaisi or draw
80%
Torpedo Kutaisi or Shukura
78%
Draw or Shukura
42%

Winning margin

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
34%
Shukura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
85%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
56%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
29%
Shukura 1+ goals
64%
Shukura 2+ goals
27%
Shukura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
74%
Shukura (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Kutaisi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.58 + Shukura defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.89

Shukura attack 0.86 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
58%
level
22%
Shukura scores more
20%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Shukura

Shukura beat Torpedo Kutaisi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.